Fatigue damage reduction in hydropower startups with machine learning
Published in Nature Communications, 2025
As the global shift towards renewable energy accelerates, achieving stability in power systems is crucial. Hydropower accounts for approximately 17% of energy produced worldwide, and with its capacity for active and reactive power regulation, is well-suited to provide necessary ancillary services. However, as demand for these services rises, hydropower systems must adapt to handle rapid dynamic changes and off-design conditions. Fatigue damage in hydraulic machines, driven by fluctuating loads and varying mechanical stresses, is especially prominent during the transient start-up of the machine. In this study, we introduce a data-driven approach to identify transient start-up trajectories that minimize fatigue damage. We optimize the trajectory by leveraging a machine learning model, trained on experimental stress data of reduced-scale model turbines. Numerical and experimental results confirm that our optimized trajectory significantly reduces start-up damage, representing a meaningful advancement in hydropower operations, maintenance, and the safe transition to higher operational flexibility.
Recommended citation: Muser, T., Krymova, K., Morabito, A., Seydoux, M. & Vagnoni, E. (2024). "Fatigue damage reduction in hydropower startups with machine learning." Nature Communications 369, 123474